We’re currently monitoring the situation for Thursday as there is an elevated threat for severe weather across our entire region. This threat will be greater than the previous severe weather threat we recently had on Saturday. The Storm Prediction Center currently has our entire area under a Level 3 out of 5 risk (Enhanced Risk). Not only we’re under an Enhanced Risk, but we’re also in a “hatched risk” zone. This means we have the potential to see tornadoes of EF-2 or stronger, along with damaging winds of 75mph or higher and hail of 2 inches or greater with any severe or tornadic storms.
By tomorrow morning, a line of strong to severe storms will be ongoing across east Texas. As the morning progresses, individual supercells will develop ahead of the line. It’s these supercell thunderstorms that will carry the greatest tornado threat. Forecast soundings for the entire area do support strong tornadoes.
As far as short terms model guidance, NAM BUFR soundings do show stronger convection than overnight GFS soundings. We will have plenty of shear available, as well as instability. Rainfall potential is anywhere between 1 to 3 inches.
Tomorrow will definitely be a keep all eyes on the weather kind of day as the entire area should be under a Tornado Watch by late morning.