Tropical Storm Michael continues to slowly organize over the northwest Caribbean Sea even though the environment currently is characterized by strong upper level wind shear.
As the storm moves into the Gulf overnight tonight into Monday, wind shear will begin to decline and steady strengthening is expected. Most of the reliable model guidance brings Michael to a borderline Major Hurricane come landfall on Wednesday over the northeast Gulf Coast.
The last few sets of model guidance have been trending slightly more east with the highest threat area being from Pensacola to the Big Bend area of Florida. Those residents in these areas should begin preparations for a hurricane impact come midweek. This part of the Gulf Coast has had a run of good luck over the past few decades with very few significant hurricane impacts. That hopefully doesn’t lead to complacency among residents.
It should also be noted that this part of the Gulf is susceptible to storm surge which depending on the final storm strength of Michael, could exceed 10 feet in some areas.
For Louisiana, the threat continues to decrease for any impacts with Michael. There will be some rain squalls to contend with on Tuesday before a cold front slides in on the backside of the storm by the end of the upcoming work week. Thereafter, Fall weather will finally arrive!