Michael forecast to be a powerful hurricane at landfall

Florida Panhandle residents are urged to complete preparations as Michael is now forecast to be at or near Major Hurricane strength at landfall. Still, the current forecast by the National Hurricane Center may be a tad conservative as all reliable forecast guidance have Michael at Category 3 or 4 strength making Michael an extremely dangerous and possibly catastrophic threat to the Florida Panhandle.

As of early Monday morning, Hurricane Hunters found Michael already very near hurricane strength in regards to his maximum sustained winds, however his pressure has fallen well into what is normally seen in a hurricane. It takes a little time for winds to catch up but without a doubt, Michael will reach hurricane strength sometime today…likely by the 10am advisory. This is a LOT sooner than computer guidance had him reaching hurricane strength.

Upper level winds continue to improve. Add in very warm gulf waters and the environment becomes very favorable for continue strengthening, and possibly bursts of rapid intensification.

This morning’s GFS Model:

This morning’s European Model:

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