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Hurricane Season? Where is it???

There is no question we’ve been having a below normal hurricane season. Here we are going into the second full week of August, and there is absolutely nothing on the horizon! We’re sure most will not complain. Can we go the entire month of August without a named storm?


This is what the GFS model is showing for pretty much the rest of the month of August…an Atlantic Basin just about void of any convection.





What’s been causing this? We’ve seen persistent areas of “SAL” (Saharan Air Layer), otherwise known as very dry air, move across the basin all the way from Africa to the Gulf of Mexico. This SAL will be affecting the gulf coast this week which is why we’ll see “murky” skies for a few days. We’ve also been seeing higher than normal wind shear across the basin this season. So there it goes…it doesn’t matter how warm sea surface temperatures are. If you have a couple players like this against tropical development, nothing can develop. But how long will this last? Historically, the season peak is September 10th each season so we must all remain vigilant for now.

NOAA lowered their numbers on August 9th:


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