2018 Atlantic Discussion Thread #1

This topic contains 123 replies, has 26 voices, and was last updated by Helicity 18 hours, 39 minutes ago.

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  • #3656

    Dylan Federico
    • New Orleans

    I still can’t convince myself that anything will develop this soon and make its way into the gulf as an organized system. I’d be shocked if it happens.

    There was some modest support from the European ensembles. My thing is that if they are right, it would be late May. A tropical storm coming out of the western Caribbean Sea in late May isn’t an outlandish scenario at all. What is would be a category 3 hurricane like some of the GFS runs, which were garbage.

    #3670

    skysummit
    • Ponchatoula, LA

    Nothing much to talk about down there other than the GFS still trying to pick up on something in the west Caribbean down the stretch.  It’s staying way out in the distance though.

     

    CWOP ID: DW2721, CoCoRaHs Station: LA-TG-11
    NWS's Ponchatoula/Hammond Area's COOP Member, Station ID 16-7425-08, PONL1
    President | Director of Operations -StormCast
    Lead Buyer's Specialist - BWL Group of Keller Williams Realty

    #3680

    harahantim
    • Harahan

    This morning’s 06z GFS, doesn’t do the gulf coast any favors, in the two week out fantasy view.

    #3681

    Zack Fradella

    This happens every year, it’s Mother Nature’s way of starting the season.

     

    A tropical gyre develops over Central America and in the long range models (GFS) try to take a spoke of the gyre away and turn it into a hurricane that gets pulled into the Gulf. That never happens. What usually happens is over time they trend weaker thus keeping any system from gaining much latitude. Eventually, the storm ends up in the EPAC or is a weak mess that plays around the Yucatan for a few days.

     

    It’s something to watch but this song plays out every year.

    • This reply was modified 5 days, 13 hours ago by Zack Fradella.
    2 users liked this post.
    #3687

    skysummit
    • Ponchatoula, LA

    😛

    CWOP ID: DW2721, CoCoRaHs Station: LA-TG-11
    NWS's Ponchatoula/Hammond Area's COOP Member, Station ID 16-7425-08, PONL1
    President | Director of Operations -StormCast
    Lead Buyer's Specialist - BWL Group of Keller Williams Realty

    #3688

    NDG

      GFS may not had been that crazy after all, hoping that development takes longer than forecasted, Memorial weekend beach plans will be ruined for most of us in central and S FL. Things could still change since this potential monsoonal system is still in the 7-10 day range of the GFS and Euro.

      One thing that I don’t like is the strong Bermuda ridge that has popped up over the last few days. You know what they say about early systems path in the beginning of the season.

      #3689

      Helicity
      • Houma, LA

      Very consistent.

      Vice President - Stormcast - https://www.stormcastlive.com
      Owner - Helicity Designs - https://www.helicitydesigns.com

      #3690

      Gulf Breeze
      • Vermilion Parish, LA

        😛

        I hope that this is not the case.

        #3691

        Zack Fradella

        Definitely starting to see consistency among the various models, not just one anymore. And we are also now in the believable range within the next 10 days.

        Memorial Day weekend may be a storm tracking weekend this year!

        1 user liked this post.
        #3692

        skysummit
        • Ponchatoula, LA

        Canadian goes into the Florida peninsula.  EURO moves him toward the Florida panhandle.

        06z GFS moves him inland into the  Apalachicola area.

         

        Meanwhile, future GFS is a monster.

         

        CWOP ID: DW2721, CoCoRaHs Station: LA-TG-11
        NWS's Ponchatoula/Hammond Area's COOP Member, Station ID 16-7425-08, PONL1
        President | Director of Operations -StormCast
        Lead Buyer's Specialist - BWL Group of Keller Williams Realty

        1 user liked this post.
        #3693

        hurricaner

        Also starting to see some heavy developing in the SW Caribbean.

        #3694

        harahantim
        • Harahan

        Meanwhile, future GFS is a monster.

        To add insult to injury, Future GFS also stalls him for a couple of days, before moving inland.
        Not a good time, for the new GFS, to be New & “Improved”! LOL

        #3695

        wsmith0306
        • St. Amant/Lake Martin area

        Okay, so models are becoming more consistent and the moderators and mets on here are starting to raise eyebrows. Is this really something that is being taken seriously or are we still laughing at this? SST’s in the Gulf are way too low for even a cat 1, right?

        #3696

        Helicity
        • Houma, LA

        There’s no way to tell this far out what is possible or probable. All we know is models are consitently showing something in the 7-14 day range

        Vice President - Stormcast - https://www.stormcastlive.com
        Owner - Helicity Designs - https://www.helicitydesigns.com

        #3697

        hurricaner

        According to the 12Z GFS the time of initial development is between day 6 & 7.

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