INVEST 90L Discussion Thread – Gulf of Mexico

This topic contains 401 replies, has 67 voices, and was last updated by NDG 1 year ago.

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  • #4512

    Dylan Federico
    • New Orleans
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      Replies: 66

    0z European sends 90L into the MS/AL border as a category one hurricane on Monday.

    Twitter: @DylanFedericoWX
    Facebook: DylanFedericoWX

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    #4514

    nolarealtor
    • City Park N.O.
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        Replies: 7

      So it appears that the ULL that was in the middle of the gulf yesterday. looks to be right above the Yucatan now. It is moving south, very close to our invest but wouldn’t that push the invest more southward than north at least in the short term?

      #4515

      cheshirecat
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        Replies: 5

      Sooo… maybe I’m not crazy for buying a generator and thinking of being prepared.

      Me, too.

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      #4516

      harahantim
      • Harahan
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        Replies: 57

      This morning’s 06z GFS, and the overnight EURO, seems to once again have a bit of a peace treaty, in their relationship.

       

      The EURO, from 48 hours out, to 120 hours out.

       

       

      The GFS, for the same basic time frame

       

       

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      #4520

      NDG
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          Replies: 12

        This is where the low pressure center I think is this morning, still somewhat broad but getting better defined. Surface pressures are starting to fall in the area, this could very well be a TD by this afternoon, IMO.

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        #4522

        thibodauxwx
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          Replies: 8

        The NHC has the chance of development up to 90% over the next 2 days, and 90 % over the next 5 , next update at 2 pm,  I wouldn’t be surprised to see a watch go up this afternoon from Florida to Louisiana, they are. Suppose to have a plane out there this afternoon,

        #4523

        husky delabasin
        • Port Barre, Louisiana
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            Replies: 16

          looks like icon navgem  cmc  looks like most the models every one keeps talking about are in fl. now.  if this ends up being a fl. storm then wouldnt that make the gfs more correct once all is said and done since its been going to fl before any others even picked it up. it sure looks like they all starting to cave toward the east

          #4527

          harahantim
          • Harahan
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            Replies: 57

          looks like icon navgem cmc looks like most the models every one keeps talking about are in fl. now. if this ends up being a fl. storm then wouldnt that make the gfs more correct once all is said and done since its been going to fl before any others even picked it up. it sure looks like they all starting to cave toward the east

          Not really seeing where any of them bring the center all the way to Florida. A good bit of rain, from the broad circulation, but not the bulk of the system.

          #4528

          NolaMike
          • Madisonville
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            Replies: 18

          If that’s where it goes then yes the GFS would have been correct first on this storm.

          On the other hand, the gfs also had it going into central Florida multiple times and being completely ripped apart so it certainly hasn’t been consistent in its runs.

          Also, when the center forms in the gulf somewhere in that red box that’s when the models will have a better and more consistent idea of where it goes

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          #4529

          Zack Fradella
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            Replies: 34

          GFS was across South FL for some time while the EURO kept going to LA. As is usually the case, you put the two together and get the track.

           

          Now the eventual track still seems to be more weighted in favor of the EURO, plus this is still not a done deal.

           

          I don’t like that turn west at the coast. It wouldn’t take much to shift that going into Lake P which would be an awkward hit for us. I’m not saying that is my opinion but it’s something to watch until we get this thing moving and more organized.

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          #4531

          hurricaner
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            Replies: 23

          Looking at the 06Z GFS Ensemples are showing a recurve to the west and bring “Alberto” between Morgan City and Panama City. There is definitely a strong curve to the west

          #4533

          husky delabasin
          • Port Barre, Louisiana
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              Replies: 16

            i cant seem to do or write correct on here

            #4534

            husky delabasin
            • Port Barre, Louisiana
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                Replies: 16

              looks like icon navgem cmc looks like most the models every one keeps talking about are in fl. now. if this ends up being a fl. storm then wouldnt that make the gfs more correct once all is said and done since its been going to fl before any others even picked it up. it sure looks like they all starting to cave toward the east

              Not really seeing where any of them bring the center all the way to Florida. A good bit of rain, from the broad circulation, but not the bulk of the system.

              i cant post pictures anymore for some reason but it sure looks like  the cmc at hour 90 goes across fl. the icon looks like it goes across the ala fl line at hour 96. looks like the gfs goes give or take the same at hour 72. the future gfs at hour 66.  navgem around hour 84.  unless im seeing that wrong

              #4536

              Will
              • St. Amant/Lake Martin area
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                Replies: 66

              GFS was across South FL for some time while the EURO kept going to LA. As is usually the case, you put the two together and get the track.

              Now the eventual track still seems to be more weighted in favor of the EURO, plus this is still not a done deal.

              I don’t like that turn west at the coast. It wouldn’t take much to shift that going into Lake P which would be an awkward hit for us. I’m not saying that is my opinion but it’s something to watch until we get this thing moving and more organized.

              My mom was just asking me this morning what this is going to do (she knows I watch these things like a hawk). I told her I really don’t know where it’s going to go or even if it’s going to be only a tropical storm since the models are all over the place. I told her that I’m leaning toward it going into the AL/MS border since that seems to be the model consensus right now but that it’s still not a crazy thought to think it could turn west into Lake Pontchartrain, which I’ve never seen happen in my time before.

              Seeing a hurricane turn due west into LP would indeed be awkward and I would enjoy observing the impacts that would cause, simply because I’ve never seen that before. I’d be curious to see how that would affect surge.

              #4537

              husky delabasin
              • Port Barre, Louisiana
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                  Replies: 16

                the rain alone or at least a lot of rain wouldn’t be to good for New Orleans  if they still having pump issues

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