INVEST 90L Discussion Thread – Gulf of Mexico

This topic contains 401 replies, has 67 voices, and was last updated by NDG 1 year ago.

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  • #3857

    Helicity
    • Houma, LA
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    #3821

    Dylan Federico
    • New Orleans
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      Replies: 66

    0z European doesn’t budge. Strong tropical storm into central Louisiana on Saturday night.

     

    Twitter: @DylanFedericoWX
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    #3822

    Dylan Federico
    • New Orleans
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    By the way, it’s still in Louisiana on Tuesday night, according to the latest Euro.

    Twitter: @DylanFedericoWX
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    #3823

    Dylan Federico
    • New Orleans
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      Replies: 66

    Looks like the European has the system near DeRidder, Louisiana on Wednesday night… 5 days after landfall. This would mean well over a foot of rain for many places. Still plenty of time for this to change, but the consistency is cause for concern.

    Twitter: @DylanFedericoWX
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    #3826

    Helicity
    • Houma, LA
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    #3827

    Dylan Federico
    • New Orleans
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      Replies: 66

    0z European ensembles clustering on landfall in Louisiana next weekend, with some ensembles showing the possibility extending from the Sabine River to Panama City.

    Twitter: @DylanFedericoWX
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    #3828

    harahantim
    • Harahan
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      Replies: 57

    Even the Future GFS, is lining up with the others, leaving the GFS as the outlier. The GFS will either come out of this looking amazing, or terrible. I don’t think too many people will place their money in its corner.

    00z Future GFS for Tuesday ( It also has the system hanging around south La. and the coast, from Sat thru Tues)

    View post on imgur.com

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    #3830

    harahantim
    • Harahan
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      Replies: 57

    06z GFS continues with the east coast of Florida solution.

    #3832

    harahantim
    • Harahan
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      Replies: 57

    And just like that, Future GFS 06z, goes with its older brother, and any moisture moves off Florida.

    #3833

    rnj79
    • West Baton Rouge Parish
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        Replies: 12

      My parents are planning to come down from North Texas for a long weekend. Guess we should kinda pay attention…

      #3834

      hurricaner
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        Replies: 23

      We now have yellow in the NW Caribbean.

      Special Tropical Weather Outlook
      NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
      830 AM EDT Mon May 21 2018

      For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

      1. Widespread cloudiness and showers extending from the northwestern
      Caribbean Sea across Cuba and the Florida peninsula are associated
      with the interaction of a large upper-level low with a weak surface
      trough. While environmental conditions are expected to be
      unfavorable for development during the next couple of days, some
      gradual development is possible later this week while the system
      moves into the central or eastern Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of
      development, locally heavy rainfall is possible across western Cuba
      and Florida over the next several days. For more information on
      the heavy rain threat, please see products issued by your local
      weather office. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this
      system will be issued by 800 PM EDT tonight.
      * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent.
      * Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.

      #3835

      NDG
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          Replies: 12

        If the Euro was to be correct with the tropical system tracking and barely moving over your area, this is how much rainfall it forecasts during the next 10 days.

         

         

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        #3836

        harahantim
        • Harahan
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          Replies: 57

        We now have yellow in the NW Caribbean.

        Special Tropical Weather Outlook

        NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

        830 AM EDT Mon May 21 2018

        For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

        1. Widespread cloudiness and showers extending from the northwestern

        Caribbean Sea across Cuba and the Florida peninsula are associated

        with the interaction of a large upper-level low with a weak surface

        trough. While environmental conditions are expected to be

        unfavorable for development during the next couple of days, some

        gradual development is possible later this week while the system

        moves into the central or eastern Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of

        development, locally heavy rainfall is possible across western Cuba

        and Florida over the next several days. For more information on

        the heavy rain threat, please see products issued by your local

        weather office. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this

        system will be issued by 800 PM EDT tonight.

        * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent.

        * Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.

        Tells us what the NHC currently thinks of the GFS.

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        #3837

        Will
        • St. Amant/Lake Martin area
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          Replies: 66

        If the Euro was to be correct with the tropical system tracking and barely moving over your area, this is how much rainfall it forecasts during the next 10 days.

        Hmmm, with the majority of the heaviest rainfall in that model located in southwest Louisiana, wouldn’t that mean it sees the system track well to the west of Louisiana, into Texas? The rainfall with these weak systems is usually concentrated on the eastern side and the only way I see southwest Louisiana having the majority of the heaviest rain is if the system tracks into the central Texas coast area.

        Seeing these model runs of future rainfall estimates is just ominous as you know what. When you consider the FACT that at this point deviations of 6″ or more within any 30 mile area is almost certain to be incorrect, I believe EVERYONE across southern Louisiana from New Orleans to Lake Charles needs to be very well aware of this potential. What really grinds my gears is when people get caught off guard by weather events when sites like this great place exist that anyone can go to and educate themselves. I visit this site quite often and whenever some sort of event is coming, I tell my family and friends about it. They ALWAYS tell me “aw, that’s not gonna happen” or “I’ll believe it when WBRZ says it” (I won’t go into how ridiculous that sounds after December’s snowfall), or “yea but they always say that” even though I’ve ended up being right about 80% of the time.

        HUGE props to this site, the admins, and the professional meteorologists here who give candid, honest, and easy to understand opinions. Keep it up and don’t stop.

        4 users liked this post.
        #3838

        harahantim
        • Harahan
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          Replies: 57

        If the Euro was to be correct with the tropical system tracking and barely moving over your area, this is how much rainfall it forecasts during the next 10 days.

        Hmmm, with the majority of the heaviest rainfall in that model located in southwest Louisiana, wouldn’t that mean it sees the system track well to the west of Louisiana, into Texas? The rainfall with these weak systems is usually concentrated on the eastern side and the only way I see southwest Louisiana having the majority of the heaviest rain is if the system tracks into the central Texas coast area.

        Seeing these model runs of future rainfall estimates is just ominous as you know what. When you consider the FACT that at this point deviations of 6″ or more within any 30 mile area is almost certain to be incorrect, I believe EVERYONE across southern Louisiana from New Orleans to Lake Charles needs to be very well aware of this potential. What really grinds my gears is when people get caught off guard by weather events when sites like this great place exist that anyone can go to and educate themselves. I visit this site quite often and whenever some sort of event is coming, I tell my family and friends about it. They ALWAYS tell me “aw, that’s not gonna happen” or “I’ll believe it when WBRZ says it” (I won’t go into how ridiculous that sounds after December’s snowfall), or “yea but they always say that” even though I’ve ended up being right about 80% of the time.

        HUGE props to this site, the admins, and the professional meteorologists here who give candid, honest, and easy to understand opinions. Keep it up and don’t stop.

        Well said. A great response to the “WBRZ” comment, is “When did WBRZ warn you about the massive Baton Rouge flooding, in 2016? Oh, on Sunday morning, after the flooding had happened!” Anyone watching this forum, on that Saturday evening, knew there was an extremely dangerous threat, to Baton Rouge and area.
        Very good point, of not focusing on exact points of heavy rain estimates. No way to tell, at this time, if it does pan out, who will be most affected. It is all about, just keeping an eye open for the possible future event.

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