Eyes on the Caribbean

While Leslie continues to meander around the north Atlantic, the National Hurricane Center has highlighted our next area to watch. The GFS has not given this area much support for development, however other global models such as the European, Canadian and NAVGEM have.

Surface observations and satellite-derived wind data indicate that

a broad area of low pressure has developed over the southwestern

Caribbean Sea a couple hundred miles north of Panama. Shower and

thunderstorm activity is currently limited, and unfavorable

upper-level winds are expected to inhibit development over the next

couple of days while the low drifts generally northward. By late

week and over the weekend, however, upper-level winds are forecast

to become a little more conducive for development when the system

will be moving northwestward into the northwestern Caribbean Sea.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.

We’ll be watching it closely in the forums, as well as analyzing every model package that comes. out.

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