While Leslie continues to meander around the north Atlantic, the National Hurricane Center has highlighted our next area to watch. The GFS has not given this area much support for development, however other global models such as the European, Canadian and NAVGEM have.
Surface observations and satellite-derived wind data indicate that
a broad area of low pressure has developed over the southwestern
Caribbean Sea a couple hundred miles north of Panama. Shower and
thunderstorm activity is currently limited, and unfavorable
upper-level winds are expected to inhibit development over the next
couple of days while the low drifts generally northward. By late
week and over the weekend, however, upper-level winds are forecast
to become a little more conducive for development when the system
will be moving northwestward into the northwestern Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.
We’ll be watching it closely in the forums, as well as analyzing every model package that comes. out.