Eye on the tropics – Thursday Morning, 8/17

So many areas to watch across the Atlantic Basin, but will any develop?  The National Hurricane Center is highlighting 3 areas; Invest 91L, Invest 92L, and soon to be Invest 93L way out in the east Atlantic near the coast of Africa.

Let’s start closer to home.  First of all, 91L looks like it’ll become our next tropical depression as it moves west through the Caribbean.  The next name on the list would be “Harvey” if he reached tropical storm strength.  There are some signs that this feature could actually be an intense hurricane in the west Caribbean, however it should stay well to the south of the United States and basically be one of those “west runner” type storms…straight across the Caribbean, into Belize.  All interests in the west Caribbean should monitor closely.

Next on the list is Invest 92L.  Now this is the one we’re paying closer attention to because this is the one that has the best chance of getting into the Gulf.  So far, only 1 of the major global models are showing support for development, however this season, really none of the global models are performing all that well.  For example, the “beloved” GFS model did not pick up on Gert until Gert was a storm.  So as we watch 92L move west-northwest, we’ll be watching for any signs of cyclogenesis, especially as it passes north of the Antilles and toward the southern Bahamas.   Upper level winds are forecast to be light and favorable in those areas by the time 92L gets there so the only thing that could hamper any development would be dry air located in the mid levels of the atmosphere.  Regardless, let’s watch this one closely.

Elsewhere, it’s too early to talk about future 93L.  Hurricane Gert did reach its max intensity yesterday as a Category 2, 105mph hurricane, however his quick weakening trend has begun since he is now accelerating and moving over the colder waters of the far, north Atlantic.

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