The calendar may have hit October but if today’s flooding in New Orleans is any indication, the tropical atmosphere that stays with us all summer still remains in place.
Later this week all eyes will turn towards the Caribbean right near the Yucatan where an area of low pressure is expected to develop. At first this system will be a large circulation of moisture which is not exactly what we look for in terms of tropical development.
Over the weekend models are hinting that enough consolidation of the circulation will occur which may lead to the development of our next named storm. That would be Nate. This possibility will come just as the system starts to lift north into the Gulf.
I want to reiterate that none of the models show much strengthening, however someone along the Gulf Coast could be in store for some significant rainfall come late weekend into next week. Right now Florida looks to see the strongest feed of moisture but that area could shift closer to the central Gulf Coast as models start to figure things out the closer we get.
— Zack Fradella (@ZackFradellaWx) October 3, 2017