Two ‘home grown’ storms possible to start October

The peak of hurricane season is behind us and now that we are moving into October, the threat for a significant storm starts to slowly lessen as waters cool and those cold fronts increase wind shear.

That doesn’t mean we can’t see a storm and the recent summer-like pattern across the nation should keep you in that storm ready mode.

Two areas have my attention starting this weekend and continuing through the first week of October. Both will probably bloom from the same disturbed area that has permanently parked itself over the northwest Caribbean.

First up for this weekend will be newly labeled Invest 99L which is currently the piece of energy that has moved north out of the Caribbean and is located in the Florida Straits. Models continue to hint that a small window will exist for this system to organize right along the east coast of Florida. Due to the small window of favorable conditions, this system will likely remain a tropical storm but could have impacts on Florida. The next name on the list is Nate.

Later next week a secondary piece of energy will branch off from the Caribbean disturbance and move into the Gulf. Since this system is still a far ways off, it’s tough to determine what exactly will happen. Most models show the disturbance getting into the Gulf and organizing into our next named storm which after Nate would be Ophelia. Where it goes and to what extent it organizes is still highly questionable 6-10 days out.

Just remember, until we get those strong fronts coming one after another the tropics need to be watched closely.

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