Tropical Update for Monday, August 14

The tropics finally look like August!  We’re in the peak of hurricane season and action is on the increase.  As of this post, Gert is still a Tropical Storm, but should become the second Hurricane of the season overnight.  No worries from Gert however, as she’ll head out to sea.


Elsewhere to the east, we have two additional areas of interest.  First of all is Invest 91L.  There is really no known nor speculated future as to what 91L may do.  Model packages are all over the place from out to sea to a threat, from an open wave to a hurricane.  There is very low confidence in the future of 91L. Everyone always likes to see what the “GFS” says.  It’s one of our more reliable models, and is run 4 times a day.  However, not much faith can be put into the GFS.  It’s been very inaccurate so far, and even struggled with Gert up until she actually developed.  Thus, even if the GFS shows zero development, that’s not to say nothing will come together.    The National Hurricane Center is still indicating 91L has a “medium” chance of development over the next 5 days.  The next name in the list is “Harvey”.

A little farther east our next area of interest.  It’s not yet labeled an invest, but when it is, it’ll more than likely be “92L”.  Some of the long range models have hinted at this area eventually becoming “Irma”.  However, for now, the National Hurricane Center has a “low” chance of development over the next 5 days.

If we try to look well into the future, it’s looking likely that we may have an above normal September and even into October hurricane season.  Living along the coast, we all know, it only takes one.


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