The National Hurricane Center has upgraded Invest 90L to Tropical Depression 16 following morning satellite images which indicated the system is getting better organized.
It is likely we are only hours away from an upgrade to Tropical Storm Nate as a hurricane hunter flight is scheduled to be in the system later today to determine the exact strength and location of the depression.
Gradual strengthening is expected before the storm starts to interact with Nicaragua on Thursday. Overall the intensity forecast is very uncertain due to the potential for land interaction the next few days, however once in the Gulf we could be dealing with a strong tropical storm or hurricane by this weekend.
Now that the system has been upgraded, the first track has been issued by the National Hurricane Center and a motion towards the north-northwest is expected through the end of the week. This will bring the storm across the northwest Caribbean by Friday and then eventually into the southern Gulf early this weekend. An eventual turn more north, then north-northeast is possible as the storm approaches the northern Gulf Coast by Sunday.
Since we are in the developmental stages of this system, large changes are possible in both intensity and track forecast. All residents from Louisiana to Florida should monitor this system closely.