The next area to watch in the tropics?

Can the Caribbean or southern Gulf spark next week?

Now that we have passed the peak of hurricane season, we start looking a little closer to home.  Climatology suggests that long tracked hurricanes across the Atlantic are much of a lesser threat than in late August and early September.  Overall activity is also in the decrease as shown on this chart.

 

However, the season is not over…possibly far from over.  Both the GFS and European models have been suggesting we keep a close eye on the northwest Caribbean and southern Gulf around the 10 day mark (late next week).  Preliminary, very early thoughts, suggest if anything did develop, a north or northwest track would be likely.  Although anything is possible.  As far as intensity, it’s far too early to even speculate.  This long range forecasting is thought of as fantasy land in terms of models and can be highly inaccurate, but regardless of anything developing specifically, this is actually the area we should be monitoring at this time of the year anyway.

A few notable October hurricanes which come to mind are the Great Cheniere Caminada Hurricane of 1893, Hurricane Hilda in 1964, Hurricane Juan in 1985, Hurricane Opal in 1995, and Hurricane Lili in 2002.