Hurricane Season has been ongoing for two months now and although we are already on the “F” storm, most of the activity so far has been fairly weak.
Anyone who has tracked the tropics or lived in a hurricane zone knows that the early season weak storms are just a warm up for the real season that goes from now and continues over the next 8-10 weeks.
This is the peak of hurricane season we are moving into and with that comes more frequent storms along with more intense storms.
Expect the Atlantic Ocean to turn favorable for tropical development over the next week and we are already seeing models pointing to that turn around. A tropical wave exiting Africa tonight may be the start of a busy stretch that will likely bring our first hurricane of the year and our first major. Will it be this wave that becomes both firsts? Who knows…
What we do know is models will continue to spin up more and more storms. Eventually each model will hit every city along the United States coastline with a major hurricane. All because these models are run four times a day and go out to 16 days, not because it’s a forecast. This is where understanding the difference between a model and a forecast is a must; thus understanding the limitations in the tropics.
Anything past five days in the tropical realm is like throwing darts. Yes, a model may hit the bulls-eye once every year but it will miss more often than not which is why you shouldn’t work yourself up over the social media storms that are coming over the next few weeks. You know the ones you see on Facebook that show a hurricane destroying your city ten days from now and then ten days later you are sitting outside without a cloud in the sky wondering what happened to that hurricane.
It’s those types of social media posts that make meteorologists look like they got the forecast wrong but in reality, it was just the model missing the dartboard like they usually do beyond five days.