Winter has been extremely difficult to forecast thus far…
Winter forecasting this season has kept our hands full to say the least. When meteorologists analyze computer models, lots of factors come into play. No one model run equals a forecast. We look for trends, climatology, conditions to our north and even conditions on the other side of the globe. Our discussions with each other go well in depth even beyond those factors.
These models run every 6 to 12 hours…some 4 times a day and others only 2 times a day. Some of these models are highly trusted, and others are well, just plain garbage. However, over the last few weeks, there has been near zero consistency between each run which makes any forecasting beyond 3 to 5 days a very low confidence forecast.
So, what do we have looking ahead? First of all, our next chance of rain will be in the middle of the weak. At this time, we’re not anticipating severe weather, but a few bouts of heavy rainfall may be possible. This is becoming to be a pretty decent level of confidence.
Now the low confidence talk….
New Year’s Eve celebrations may need to keep a very close eye on the upcoming weekend as there has been some indication of very cold, Arctic that’ll try to move south. Just how cold remains the question? Will there be any kind of wintry weather associated? It’s simply just too early to know, but you can bet we’ll be watching those important trends as we move through the week. Regardless, for now, just keep an eye on that long range forecast for the New Year’s Holiday, especially if your plans involves any outdoor activities. For more in depth discussions, remember to visit our forums by simply clicking “forums” in the menu above or going straight to http://www.stormcastforums.com
On the flip side…
Remember a week ago, these same computer models were popping out “interesting” weather for Christmas, and we all see how that has turned out. Thankfully mother nature has gifted us a pretty nice Christmas…not too cold and not too warm, but most importantly dry. We wish all of our followers, members and staff a very Merry Christmas, and hope Santa brings you everything you wish!