While we’re all quiet here locally on this hot 4th of July, far out in the Atlantic our next storm is brewing. Invest 94L continues to get better organized and now has an 80% chance of development over the next 5 days. Conditions are favorable for us to eventually see our next Tropical Depression and likely Tropical Storm Don. However, what happens after that?
As far as the track over the next 5 days, confidence is relatively high that we’ll see a movement toward the west-northwest which should allow this system to stay north of Caribbean Sea. Once he gets north of Puerto Rico, that’s where confidence decreases. What will conditions be like there? What will steering currents be like? Any tropical entity beyond the 3 to 5 day period always leaves us with questions, and that’s no difference here. Some guidance even completely dissipates future Don as he nears the Bahamas. Will that happen? Certainly a possibility but you can bet we will continue to monitor him over the next week.
In the meantime, have a great Independence Day!