INVEST 91L is far out in the Atlantic, just off the coast of Africa, however agreement between major global models suggest this may be our first true long tracker of the season.
Before we get to 91L, Tropical Depression Eight is forecast to become “Gert” at some point today or tonight. Gert will be of zero threat to the United States and will only affect shipping channels as he heads northwest, north and finally northeast out to sea.
Back to 91L…the National Hurricane Center has given 91L a “Low” chance of development over the next 5 days. Depending on its future structure and organization, this may increase to a “Medium” chance. We’ll be watching it very closely as many of the ensemble members of our reliable models do bring this closer to the United States compared to TD 8 / Gert. Here was the very first release of tropical guidance per Sunday morning’s 12z package. Of course it will not bounce north and south resembling a sine wave, but you can get the over all west to west-northwest motion through the week.
As far as intensity, we should see slow, but steady organization over the week ahead as just about all models do bring 91L to hurricane status eventually.
A number of European model ensembles suggest a long tracked, Cape Verde storm into the Gulf. These will continue to be monitored very closely.
We are now in the peak of the season so this is all to be expected. More to come as we closely monitor its progression.