It’s going to Texas, no Mexico or maybe Florida. Honestly with weak storms, it doesn’t really matter. The point I’ve been driving today is that you can’t focus on center points with weak systems.
Rainfall impacts can be significant far from the landfall location when we are dealing with sheared tropical systems, especially slow movers. If this system gets to our south or farther west and slows down which is looking more likely after today’s model runs (see graphic), Louisiana gets put right into that tropical funnel of moisture.
This will lead to a high flash flood risk, coastal flooding and some wind with those impacts arriving as early as Tuesday/Wednesday.
Now if the storm does in fact take a turn towards Florida which is now looking less likely, all of the heaviest rain would miss LA and stay off to our east.
Side note….Considering the name Bret will likely be used for the Atlantic disturbance, the name Cindy will probably be designated for the Gulf storm.