High Chance – Times Two

The tropics are really picking up in activity early on in the season.  Both areas of disturbed weather we’ve been monitoring now have a “high chance” of development over the next 7 days.  To start of with, Invest 92L, which is out in the far east Atlantic, may reach the Windward Islands in a few days as a tropical storm or possibly even a Category 1 Hurricane.  Once in the Caribbean, it looks to run into a heavy dose of wind shear which should allow the storm quickly disorganize before becoming much of a threat to the United States, but we’ll continue to watch it closely.  If this disturbance did develop into a tropical cyclone in the open Atlantic, it would be the first of its kind…making history as the only cyclone to develop in this region since records have been taken all the way back to the year 1851.

Closer to home, soon to be Invest 93L is getting a lot of attention.  However, there are still many questions as to where it’ll go and at what strength. Overall, we do know it will not be any stronger than a Category 1 Hurricane, if that.  Most likely we’ll be looking at a tropical storm, with the majority of rough weather to the east of the center.  Upper level winds are not looking all that favorable in the gulf so this will likely be a sheared system.  At this time, anyone from the Texas coast through the Florida panhandle should keep a close eye for possible impact.  Computer guidance is all over the place.  The next two names on the list are “Bret” and “Cindy”.

We’ll have another update later today on both disturbances.

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