Chances increasing for disturbance approaching southern Gulf

The chances for development continue to increase for the disturbance currently developing in the Caribbean.

All models remain sold on the idea that a large tropical low will develop over the Yucatán this weekend before eventually moving into portions of the southern Gulf of Mexico early next week.

In the developmental stages for tropical cyclones, a large low pressure area usually has a tendency to struggle to organize which may be the reason why some models keep this disturbance weak. Larger circulations tend to produce a wider swath of heavy, tropical rains which is what we will need to monitor the next few days.

Considering we are still a few days away from this disturbance organizing into a possible tropical system, the eventual track is largely unknown. The Gulf is not expected to be highly favorable for development so only modest intensification looks possible. That shouldn’t diminish the threat for heavy rainfall wherever this system eventually tracks.

Our other potential threat is a disorganized wave in the Atlantic. The NHC gives it a 2 out of 10 chance of developing in the next 5 days.

This is a great reminder that hurricane season is here and that means you should be monitoring the latest weather information on a regular basis.