At this time of year, we don’t look way out into the Atlantic for tropical development as conditions do not promote development of those long-track waves moving off of the coast of Africa. Where we do watch for tropical development is closer to home in the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea.
Models are in agreement that this is the location that needs to be monitored through next weekend for the possibility of an organizing tropical system.
Now we are still in model fantasyland which is where the social media hype gets too out of hand. Multiple times a day these models are run and boy can the hypecasters scare you if you let them. Some of those social media pages are out to do just that so don’t fall for it.
What we do know?
All models are unanimously developing a “version” of a tropical system near the Yucatan in about a week. When you see all models jump on a solution, usually that means something will happen but to what degree? I’ve seen this before and the two solutions that usually play out are 1) the models are pulling the moisture too far north and in the end it gets caught up over Central America never becoming anything OR 2) a weak tropical storm develops with the possibility of it moving into the Gulf of Mexico.
Models still moving monsoon gyre into W Carib or BOC end of next week. Still uncertain 8-10 day forecast, but this time not just a GFS error pic.twitter.com/fCXhsXiKnU
— Levi Cowan (@TropicalTidbits) June 10, 2017
Neither of those solutions are anything you need to lose sleep over. Let the meteorologists monitor this and just stay informed. I always say, a lot can change between now and next weekend and a lot WILL change. So why concern yourself on details that will change a million times between now and then.
Stick with the big picture, we usually see early season development in this part of the world every year and that makes this no different. Now ask yourself, how many of those June storms do you remember?
The most recent June United States landfalling hurricane was Bonnie (1986), which made landfall near High Island, TX as a Cat. 1 hurricane. pic.twitter.com/0t3uVtd1Fi
— Philip Klotzbach (@philklotzbach) June 11, 2017