The disturbance we have been watching the past few days over the Caribbean has now been labeled Invest 93L by the National Hurricane Center.
Once labeled an invest, an estimated “center” is put into the models which allows for the start of those spaghetti plots that you regularly see associated with tropical systems. Please note that in the developmental stage of a tropical system, those plots can show a wide range of solutions so use caution.
Over the past day, there really has been no change in the overall organization of the disturbance. Conditions are not favorable for much organization in the short-term but by early next week as this system moves into the southern Gulf models are trying to develop this into either a Tropical Depression or Tropical Storm. A hurricane hunter is expected to inspect the disturbance on Sunday afternoon.
Like I have been repeating the past few days, I see no reason to believe this will strengthen into anything too intense, however even weak storms need to be watched for potential impacts. Especially in the case of this disturbance as the large size and moisture field associated with it could lead to a significant rainfall event somewhere along the Gulf Coast.
You can expect regular updates from StormCast over the coming days so please make sure to stay tuned to the latest weather information.