Atlantic system likely to organize faster than Gulf disturbance
Two areas of disturbed weather are currently being monitored for tropical development, one is approaching the southern Gulf while the other is out over the open Atlantic.
The disturbance in the Atlantic has been labeled Invest 92L by the National Hurricane Center as the system is starting to show signs of organization. Conditions do appear favorable for this system to become a Tropical Depression or maybe even Tropical Storm Bret over the next few days. A continued track towards the Caribbean is expected but once near the Lesser Antilles, wind shear will likely dissipate any storm out there.
Unlike Invest 92L, conditions for development are not as favorable in the Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico. Clearly convection continues to increase in this area which is what the models have been hinting at for over a week. Over the coming days if enough convection can consolidate in portions of the Gulf, we could see a weak tropical system try to develop.
Like I have been saying the past few days, it’s too early to determine an exact track nor determine any impacts this system may have on anyone. It’s not out of the realm of possibilities to see this remain an area of disturbed weather and never organize enough to become a classified tropical system. Sometimes in the tropics you just have to wait and see.